For SDSU, if they win, they’re in – but then title game math gets complicated

San Diego State’s football team has a very clear path to the Mountain West Conference
championship game: if they win, they’re in.

However, in their last regular-season game, at 12:30 p.m. Friday, they’ll need to defeat a tough team on the road to be able to advance to the MWC title game on Dec. 5.

But who would they play in the title game, or what happens if the Aztecs lose Friday? We’ll help address those questions – it’s a bit of a muddle right now. Here’s what to know about the most likely scenarios that could unfold.

It’s easy if SDSU wins …

First, the Aztecs (9-2, 6-1 MWC) end their regular season schedule against New Mexico on Friday. UNM (8-3, 5-2 MWC), which has won five straight, sits in third place in the conference, behind SDSU and UNLV (9-2, 5-2 MWC).

If the Aztecs emerge victorious, they automatically advance and would host the Mountain West championship game at Snapdragon Stadium.

On the other hand …

If the Aztecs fall to New Mexico, the team could still play in the conference championship, but as the lower seeded, visiting team. This would be the result if SDSU loses and second-place UNLV wins against Nevada on Saturday.

UNLV would finish with the better overall record and an identical conference record, 6-2. San
Diego State then would likely visit UNLV to play in the conference title game (the two teams
did not face off in the regular season this year).

But New Mexico has a shot

However, if SDSU and UNLV each lose their last regular season game, that opens the door
for third-place New Mexico to sneak in, as it would have an identical overall record with San Diego State and UNLV at 9-3.

New Mexico could actually leapfrog both UNLV and SDSU into first place if it beats San
Diego State on Friday, as it would have an identical conference record with SDSU, 6-2, while having won the head-to-head matchup.

But a UNLV loss, combined with a loss by San Diego State to New Mexico knocks the Rebels out of championship game contention.

In other words, if the Aztecs lose, they’d need some help to make the conference title game –second-place UNLV must lose their last regular season game, and then, San Diego State’s in, but stuck playing on the road.

Could SDSU be left out?

Yep. There’s also the chance of San Diego State missing out on the championship game entirely, because a New Mexico victory would leave the Lobos and the Aztecs with identical conference and overall records (6-2, 9-3).

They also might be at the mercy of computers.

Under MWC Championship tie-breaking procedures, if there’s a tie between two top teams after all regular season games have been played, then the head-to-head result determines the host, followed by the highest CFP Selection Committee Rankings (a composite of computer rankings from Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI and SportSource).

If still tied, other tiebreakers come into play, including winning percentage against all opponents, record against the next highest-ranked team, winning percentage against common opponents and lastly, a virtual coin toss by Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez.

In the event of three-way or four-way ties in the rankings, the participants in the championship game would be chosen by an average across the four computer rankings. The host team also would be determined in that manner.

Long shots

So SDSU, UNLV and New Mexico have the clearest path to the title game. But technically, seven teams are still alive in the hunt for a spot in the conference championship. The others need a lot of help, though, to survive and advance.

For example, last year’s conference champ, Boise State, currently in fourth place in the standings, could move up if the Broncos win and both UNLV and New Mexico lose, an unlikely but not impossible scenario.

But whatever transpires this weekend, an uncomfortable truth for Mountain West officials
remains: there’s a strong possibility that at least one team playing for the title won’t even be in the conference next season.

San Diego State, along with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Utah State are
defecting from the MWC to join the Pac-12, effective July 1.

So if the Aztecs play in and win the Mountain West championship game next month, it’ll be
the last time – at least for the foreseeable future – they’ll do so, as the school’s nearly 27 years in the MWC rush toward a conclusion.

There’s a lot at stake Friday. But running back Christian Washington is trying to maintain perspective.

“I mean, every week this past season has been a championship game in our opinion,” the junior said. “So this week is nothing new for us. We’re just going to keep our heads down, keep working.”