After hitting historic lows in 2025, with just 28 of every 1,000 homes changing hands—the weakest turnover since the 1990s—the U.S. housing market is expected to stage a promising comeback in 2026. However, this recovery will unfold unevenly across the country, as nearly a quarter of major metros are likely to experience price declines, even as national sales surge by 14%. The 2.8% turnover rate represents a 38% decline from the 2021 pandemic peak and a 31% drop from pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Three factors are driving the historic slowdown: an affordability crisis caused by near-record home prices and elevated borrowing costs; a rate-lock effect keeping more than 70% of mortgaged homeowners in loans below 5%; and widespread economic uncertainty about job security and inflation. “America’s housing market is defined right now by caution,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. “Buyers are walking away from deals more often, sometimes due to affordability issues and sometimes because they’re re-evaluating whether now is the right moment to commit.” Zhao noted that when both buyers and sellers hesitate, “sales naturally fall to historic lows.” The frozen market conditions show little sign of immediate improvement. NAR names top markets for 2026 The National Association of Realtors identified 10 metropolitan areas as the nation’s top housing markets for 2026, including Charleston, Charlotte, Columbus, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minneapolis–St. Paul, Raleigh, Richmond, Salt Lake City, and Spokane. No Colorado cities made the list. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun selected the markets based on economic strength, demographic trends, and…
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