SAN JOSE – Over the last two decades in the NHL’s salary cap era, teams that have been in a playoff position by Thanksgiving Day have made the postseason 77.1% of the time.
Perhaps the same indicator holds for teams if they’re in a playoff spot, just a few days afterward.
That’s where the Sharks could be as soon as Monday night if they beat the Utah Mammoth at SAP Center. After their 4-3 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, the Sharks, with 27 points, entered Sunday in a three-way tie with the Mammoth and Edmonton Oilers for the second wild card spot in the Western Conference, and are only behind Utah because they have fewer regulation-time wins.
Regardless, it’s been a remarkable few weeks for the Sharks, who, behind some standout performances from center Macklin Celebrini and goalie Yaroslav Askarov, went 9-5-1 in November, their best record in any one month since going 11-4-0 in Nov. 2019.
“You guys are going to think I’m crazy, but I still think there’s another level to our game that we can get to consistently to put teams on their heels a little bit,” coach Ryan Warsofsky said Friday after the Sharks’ 3-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks.
“We did some good things. We’ve gotten some really good goaltending. We’ve won in different ways. That’s a big positive.”
Here’s how the Sharks can stay in the mix for their first playoff appearance:
TAKE PRESSURE OFF THE GOALIES
Before Sunday, in November, Askarov had the third-best save percentage (.947) among all goalies who started at least six games, allowing just 17 goals on 319 shots while posting an 8-2-0 record.
It was arguably the greatest single regular-season month by any Sharks goaltender in franchise history. And it’s probably unsustainable.
As he established himself as the Sharks’ No. 1, Askarov faced an average of 31.9 shots per game in November, second most in the NHL among the 15 goalies who made at least nine starts behind Boston’s Jeremy Swaman (32.0). Alex Nedeljkovic didn’t have it much easier, as he faced nearly 28 shots per game in his five starts.
The Sharks before Sunday’s games, per Natural Stat Trick, also allowed 151 high-danger chances at even strength in November, third-most in the NHL. They also rank 32nd in the league in both offensive and defensive zone time, per NHL Edge Stats.
It’s not an excellent combination for staying in the playoff mix.
The Sharks can give their goalies a break by establishing their forecheck, turning the puck over less at the offensive and defensive blue lines, and taking fewer penalties. The Sharks are the third-most penalized team in the NHL, but Askarov has often bailed them out with his stellar play.
“When a team is playing on top of you, it’s tough to get any sort of momentum going, and it’s suffocating at times,” Nedeljkovic said Saturday of the Golden Knights’ forecheck. “I think we can learn from that a little bit, and we did it at times ourselves, too. We’ve just got to be a little more consistent with it.”
SECONDARY SCORING
If the Sharks want to remain in playoff contention, they need to have more players contributing offensively.
Celebrini and Will Smith did their part in November, combining for 14 of the Sharks’ 36 goals (which ranked in the bottom third of the NHL). But the Sharks need more from Tyler Toffoli and William Eklund, who combined for just three goals in 26 games during the month.
Yes, Toffoli and Eklund do other things, but they’re also capable of more production. Toffoli, on a 12-game goal drought, is on a 16-goal pace after he had 30 last season. Eklund was a point-per-game player in October before a lower-body injury slowed him down in November. Eklund has two goals in two games going into Monday, a sign that he’s starting to feel like his former self.
“(Celebrini and Smith) have been huge for us so far,” Eklund said Friday. “But if you want to win more games, you need other guys stepping up. Obviously, those two are going to be good every night, but a lot of guys have got to contribute.”
The Sharks also need more production from the blue line as their nine defensemen have combined for just six goals, including three at even strength, all season.
Dmitry Orlov is having a solid year offensively and leads all Sharks defensemen in scoring with 14 assists. John Klingberg has seven points in 17 games, not quite enough offense to make up for some repeated defensive shortcomings.
STAYING CONSISTENT
Since late October, the Sharks have done an admirable job of not letting one loss turn into two or three. Of their last eight defeats, the Sharks have bounced back to win the next game seven times.
But the Sharks’ upcoming schedule will test that resiliency.
Starting with Monday’s game against Utah, six of the Sharks’ next seven opponents were in a playoff spot before Sunday’s games. That includes the Sharks’ game against the Washington Capitals on Wednesday in what might be Alex Ovechkin’s final trip to SAP Center, and a five-game road trip that begins with stops in Dallas, Carolina, and Philadelphia.
The Western Conference standings are so bunched up right now that any three or four-game losing streak could send a team tumbling down a few spots, and it’s not always easy to make up that ground.
Still, per tankathon.com, the Sharks, before Sunday’s games, had the easiest strength of schedule of any NHL team, with their remaining opponents’ average points percentage being .553.
“We’ve gotten results,” Warsofsky said. “But there’s still another level we can get to.”
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