The Bears are the best team in the NFC.
They still need to beat the Packers on Sunday to stay atop their four-team division, though.
Two days after securing the second spot in the NFC by beating the Eagles, the Bears moved into first place when the Panthers upset the Rams on Sunday. The Bears and Rams are both 9-3, but the Bears have the tie-breaker by virtue of having a better conference record.
Were the season to end today, the Bears would have a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
It’s becoming increasingly likely the Bears make the playoffs — the NFL Next Gen Stats playoff probability tracker gives them a 76% chance of getting in. Bears season ticket holders were sent playoff invoices this weekend; per NFL rules, teams must offer playoff tickets after 13 games if their team leads the division or is within three games of the division lead and has a record of .500 or better.
No matter where the Bears sit in the NFC, the same truism that George McCaskey says at the start of each season still applies — the only way to guarantee a playoff berth is to win their division. So’s his other maxim — beat the Packers.
If the 8-3-1 Packers defeat the Bears on Sunday, they’d leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the NFC North. If the Bears win, their playoff odds would jump to around 90% — while hanging onto the No. 1 overall spot for another week. A loss would send their playoff odds down around six percentage points.
The two teams play again two weeks later, with a Bears game against the Browns — and a Packers game in Denver — in between. The only other divisional game on the Bears’ schedule is a Week 18 home game against the Lions, who may or may not have a playoff spot on the line.
The Packers’ odds to make the postseason are actually better than the Bears — 88%. They’re two of the hottest teams in the NFC. No conference team has won more in a row than the Bears’ five. The 49ers, Packers and Cowboys are next, with a three-game win streak.
The Packers won in Detroit on Thanksgiving, capping a season sweep of the Lions. Adversity hit, though, when lost defensive tackle DeVonte Wyatt was carted off in the fourth quarter with a broken ankle.
“I’m sick for him, I’m sick for us,” coach Matt LaFleur said after the game. “That’s a critical loss for our football team, for our defense.”
The Lions had a scare of their own, though receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown wound up merely spraining his ankle. He’s likely to miss a week or two, which could be long enough to compromise the Lions’ playoff chances. The 7-5 Lions host the 6-5-1 Cowboys on Thursday night, a game that functions as a de facto elimination game for both teams. Pulling center Frank Ragnow out of retirement was supposed to assuage some of their offensive line concerns, but he failed his physical and won’t play this year. The Lions have a 42% chance of making the postseason, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
“Our margin for error is very small right now,” coach Dan Campbell told Lions reporters on Sunday afternoon. “Of course, we have to find a way to win. … Time’s running out. It’s all about finding a way to win the game.”
At the start of the season, the NFC North was considered the toughest division in the NFL. It’s since gained a straggler: the Vikings, who on Sunday used undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, their third different starting quarterback this season. Better quarterback play — be it from Brosmer or former first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who is concussed — could add to the NFC North chaos. The Vikings host the Lions and Packers in the last two weeks of the season.
The Bears, though, control their own destiny. Amazingly, with five games to play, the top seed in the NFC is theirs to cling to.
Want more insights? Join Grow With Caliber - our career elevating newsletter and get our take on the future of work delivered weekly.
