The Latest Storm Tracker Forecast from Meteorologist Kevin Appleby:
Saturday is a go for fall activities with increasing sunshine and near-average high temperatures. Clouds increase overnight with some precipitation overspreading the region over the course of Sunday. But the big story of this forecast is the shot of more December-like weather conditions for the upcoming work week.
Temperatures will peak in the low to mid 50s in most areas, with winds shifting to blow out of the northwest by the afternoon. Expect temperatures to gradually fall from their peak through the afternoon hours once the cooler flow kicks in.
With clear skies and light winds early, temperatures will continue to drop into the low to mid 30s. The numbers will be low enough in the Adirondacks that, once some light precipitation moves in by daybreak, the higher elevations will likely see some light mixed precipitation – snow, sleet, ice, and rain are all on the table up there – but impacts look limited with initially low precipitation amounts.
Could an inch or two of snow pile up in the high elevations of Hamilton, Northern Herkimer, and Northern Warren Counties? It’s not out of the question, but I do not think STEADY precipitation will be widespread enough in the morning for it to blanket the entirety of that area. Showers Sunday morning will be a bit more frequent north and west of the Capital Region.
That means many Albany-southeast especially may see largely dry weather through at least the middle of the afternoon. Now, it won’t look like a nice, inviting day – an east flow will support an abundance of clouds and keep temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
However, I think the threat of a soaking rain is largely off the table for the Capital Region-points southeast until Sunday night. With a frontal boundary swinging through the region, that will support a more widespread, steadier rain into very early Monday morning.
That front will also bring in the colder weather conditions. An upper level disturbance will be with us for most of the upcoming work week, keeping us cool, breezy, cloudy, and rather unsettled. The coldest of this stretch of days will be Tuesday, where we may wake up to wind chill values in the teens in many locations!
Daytime highs on Monday will remain in the 40s, but 40 might not even be achieved on Tuesday – we are forecasting a high of just 39 in Albany. Some of the Adirondacks may be stuck below freezing! Additionally, Tuesday is expected to be the day with the highest wind gusts (~35MPH peak gusts expected). So it will be downright wintry by Tuesday!
There are still some model discrepancies for Monday – they are struggling with handling a wave of low pressure that will be developing to our east. Placement and intensity of this low are important for us, as a low pressure center that is both stronger and farther west will mean Monday is a bit more unsettled with rain and elevation snow showers. Most of the guidance in this morning, however, is supportive of a weaker, less impactful low bringing only a few rain and snow showers here and there Monday. Winds will blow off the Great Lakes Tuesday, and the air mass in place will be cold enough that any precip will fall in the form of snow. Don’t expect any accumulation in the valleys, but a few inches could pile up over some of the high spots. Wednesday and Thursday will see temperatures moderate a bit, but skies will remain rather cloudy with a continued breeze and occasional rain and high elevation snow showers. By Friday, the upper low should loosen its grip on our weather pattern, so the threat for precip is lower by the end of the work week.
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